spacetoday.net: Asteroid poses little impact risk to Earth

Posted: Tue, Sep 2, 2003, 10:14 AM ET (1414 GMT)
Asteroid impact illustration (Don Davis/NASA)

A newly-discovered asteroid has a small but non-zero chance of colliding with the Earth in 2014, although astronomers believe that the risk will fall to zero as additional observations are made. Asteroid 2003 QQ47, a body estimated to be about 1.2 kilometers across, was discovered last month, and orbits calculated from initial observations showed that the asteroid had a small chance of striking the Earth on March 21, 2014. Calculations by JPL, using data through August 31, show a 1-in-1.75 million chance of a collision on that date. Other calculations put the odds of impact at 1 in 909,000. JPL listed this event as a 1 on the Torino Scale, meaning the asteroid merited additional observations but no significant concern. However, the Near Earth Objects Dynamic Site (NEODyS) in Italy, using the same set of observations, calculated an impact probability of only 1 in 10.8 million. In any event, astronomers do not consider this asteroid to pose any significant risk to the Earth, and that future observations will refine the orbit and reduce any chance of a 2014 impact to zero.