Once Elon Musk’s SpaceX starts launching its Interplanetary Transport System (ITS) rockets to Mars, it will take “40 to 100 years to achieve a fully self-sustaining civilisation” on the Red Planet, the entrepreneur has said.
Speaking to the audience at the 67th International Astronautical Congress today, September 27, Musk estimated it would take this long to build a population of one million people.
It's no secret Musk has plans to colonise Mars, and the Tesla boss used today’s platform to explain how this mission would take place.
The huge advanced carbon fibre ITS spaceship and booster would have thrust power of 13,000 tonnes, propelled by 42 engines using cryogenic methane as rocket fuel.
Musk envisions 1,000 of these enormous ships sitting in orbit at any one time - “kind of like Battlestar Galactica...good show”. They would be refuelled using propellant tankers, and be capable of holding 100 crew - though this number would ideally rise to 200.
We will need this vast number of ships, he said, because they are expected to have a lifespan of 30 years and 15 flights each. “So you want to maximise the cargo.” He envisions further iterations of the spaceship being ever larger - “if we’re going to have iron foundries and pizza joints on Mars, we need to carry a lot of cargo”.
The spaceships will be launched from Nasa’s Kennedy Space Centre, but the SpaceX team also plans for a second launch site on the south coast of Texas.
If the crew number onboard stays at 100, 10,000 trips will be needed to populate Mars, said Musk. Due to the time limitations on this, his estimate came to a mission length of 40 to 100 years to reach the necessary population.
Musk’s speech centred on the ways in which he plans on reducing the cost of a trip to Mars to make this possible - a reduction of five million percent, he said.
Four key improvements to space travel are needed to achieve this: full reusability (SpaceX has been testing reusable rockets); refilling in orbit; a propellant plant on Mars; and the right propellant.
As far back as 2012, Musk was stating his plans to be involved in creating a settlement for humans on Mars. The colonisation, he said, would begin with a 10-person group that would travel to the planet to establish life there.
"At Mars, you can start a self-sustaining civilisation and grow it into something really big," he explained four years ago. The initial group of humans living on Mars would take construction materials to build pressurised domes where food could potentially be grown. Ultimately, 80,000 people could live in a colony.
According to the entrepreneur, tickets would be able to be purchased by wealthy individuals. As flights to the Red Planet became common, their cost would decrease. Eventually, without putting a date on it, the Tesla boss said seats would be able to be purchased for $500,000 (£385,000). "Land on Mars, a round-trip ticket — half a million dollars. It can be done," he said in 2012.
Musk is serious about getting to Mars. At the heart of the plan are the reusable rockets being developed by SpaceX. At present, SpaceX has successfully launched six rockets to orbit and re-landed them on Earth.
The Falcon 9 rockets have carried payloads into orbit (before they are sent to the International Space Station or left circling the planet) and then been guided to landing points, at sea and on land, by GPS technology. Tests have not always gone successfully, with five rockets exploding during test landings.
Rockets that are being tested currently won't be the ones that are used to get to Mars: much heavier and more powerful developments are needed. In September, Musk said his firm's heavy duty spacecraft would be responsible for getting humans to Mars.
The rocket – the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS) – will be able to carry 100 tons of cargo or 100 people to Mars, it is claimed. It also has the potential to go "well beyond Mars," according to his calculations.
ITS is set to be built and developed for human missions in 2025. However, before this SpaceX will be sending unmanned probes to the rocky planet's surface. The firm will send spacecraft to Mars every two years – starting in 2018.
"It's a regular cargo route. You can count on it. It's going to happen every 26 months. Like a train leaving the station," Musk said in June.
This article was originally published by WIRED UK
