The launch of a Chinese investigation that aims to collect lunar samples from the far side of the moon is a unique step in humanity’s goal to advance its space initiatives.
But for the United States, some believe it could be troubling.
“We believe that a lot of their so-called civilian space program is a military program,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said at an April congressional hearing. “And I think, in effect, we are in a race.”
The success of this mission will determine whether China can hit its goal of putting astronauts on the moon by the end of this decade. Sample-return missions follow the “exact same steps that any human mission to the moon will go through,” said James Head III, a Brown University professor who worked on NASA’s Apollo program and collaborated with Chinese scientists on studying the Chang’e-6 landing zone.
“There’s a lot of practicing going on here,” he added.
The U.S. aspires to construct an outpost on the moon, but a scheduled 2025 attempt to launch astronauts to the moon has been delayed to September 2026.
That timeline still puts America ahead of China, which is pursuing a goal of putting its own astronauts on the moon by 2030 and establishing a permanent joint lunar base with Russia by 2035. But the risks could be high if the U.S. runs into further delays.
“My concern is if China got there first and suddenly said, ‘OK, this is our territory. You stay out,'” Nelson said. Nelson referenced China’s aggressive territorial claims in the South China Sea to offer a clue as to how Beijing would handle a possible lunar dispute.
Outside of the intangible advantage of being first, China could use a moonbase to disable enemy satellites, said Namrata Goswami, a professor at Arizona State University’s Thunderbird School of Global Management who focuses on space policy.
China appears to have been consistent, unlike NASA, an agency notorious for delays.
“What is astounding to me is they’re almost meeting all their stated timelines,” Goswami said.
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While Nelson thinks the U.S. will not lose its space edge, he remains cautious.
“But you got to be realistic,” he said. “China has really thrown a lot of money at it, and they’ve got a lot of room in their budget to grow. I think that we just better not let down our guard.”
