President Trump’s new Space Force military service would cost up to about $2.7 billion in new spending over five years, significantly less than a recent $13 billion Pentagon estimate, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The vast majority of troops and costs — about 96 percent — would come from existing Pentagon spending on space missions. So the new funding needed is relatively small, especially compared to other expenses such as F-35 fighter aircraft and a first-ever financial audit of the military this year, said Todd Harrison, the CSIS defense budget analyst who conducted the study.
“Most of this is just a simple matter of reorganization and whether or not you think that is worth it. The added cost is a handful of F-35s or less than the audit, less than the annual cost of the audit,” Harrison said. “So, I don’t think that cost should actually be that much of a factor in their decisions. I think a bigger factor is whether or not you think it is needed, and I mean that’s what the debate should be about.”
Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson, who previously opposed a space service, said in September that the president’s signature proposal would cost about $13 billion over five years and called that a conservative estimate.
At the time, Harrison called the figure an example of “malicious compliance” that was aimed at derailing a proposal that could shrink the Air Force’s responsibility over space programs.
“This is almost like 10,000 additional people that they added to their estimate. That’s what they have to explain,” Harrison said Monday.
The CSIS analysis lays out three potential scenarios for space reform. An earlier proposal for a Space Corps pushed by the House Armed Services Committee would ramp up Pentagon spending by $1.5 billion over five years.
But Trump has called for a brand-new military service branch, the first since the Air Force was created in 1947. That Space Force would cost up to $2.7 billion in new funding over the five years, or bump up current spending by about $550 million annually, and require an annual total base budget of about $21.5 billion, according to Harrison.
Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan said last week that the Pentagon is still working through its own cost estimate that it plans to send to Congress in February.
That figure could be lower than $5 billion, Shanahan told reporters at the Pentagon, but it remains unclear what the figure might include.
“One of the golden rules in budget analysis is never rely on budget data that is presented orally. Until he’s written it down we don’t really know for sure what he meant,” Harrison said.
